The Great Predicted Log Challenge - August 27, 2011

[Leigh Ann]

Save the Date

The Notice of Event will be published in the near future...

THE GREAT PREDICTED LOG CHALLENGE
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Galveston Bay Texas

Organized by
Houston Yacht Club, Galveston Bay Cruising Association
Lakewood Yacht Club, Texas Corinthian Yacht Club

THE CHALLENGE:  The Great Predicted Log Challenge (GPLC) is a contest wherein each skipper attempts to accurately predict his/her elapsed time to navigate a specified course located within Galveston Bay.

[Hamburger]

ok, I bite: I just enter a high time and lollygag around the finish mark until time's up. Or is this a race, also?

[ChrisA]

You don't get to use a watch.

[Bee]

What about the one on board?

[STuma]

Considering it's in August, does it have to be the same calendar day?

Sounds interesting.

[Leigh Ann]

Basic description of a Predicted Log Challenge (this is not the official notice of event or instructions for the Great Predicted Log Challenge on August 27, 2011):

It is a contest where each skipper attempts to most accurately predict the time it will take to navigate a specified course in their boat.  It usually consists of four or more legs totaling about 25 miles. Before the contest, skippers turn in predicted logs which specify the time they expect to use on each leg of the course. Each skipper then starts onto the course at their predicted starting time. An observer aboard the boat collects all watches (and other devices - GPS, computers, phones, etc, etc) so that the skipper and crew have no knowledge of the actual time during the contest. The only instrumentation allowed is a wet compass and a tachometer. As each mark is passed, the Observer records the time on the actual log. After completing the course, scoring will be done in accordance with the challenge instructions.

The plans are for this challenge to be open for sail and motor boats. Again specific details will be coming in a month or so, stayed tuned.

[Bee]

How about the one the govment planttedd in my headd?

[Hamburger]

That one seems to be malffunntionning awreadi, Bee.

Y'all mean I get to race against a motor boat?? That should be fun! I guess we should all re-read the rules of the road......maybe my RIB will have the right-of-way because it's operating in the channel...

[Brad]

Tachometer?  Do you mean a knotmeter?  Can you use your engine?.  If so, I think it will be pretty easy to prefict the time to cover the course.  Differences will be in seconds or maybe a minute or two

[ChrisA]

No knotmeter.

[Hamburger]

One of the enterprising engineers at my office pointed out that this would favor really slow driving, because the time error as a percent is less if the denominator (i.e., elapsed time) is really large. So, can we enter row boats?

[Leigh Ann]

More information on what the Great Predicted Log Challenge is about:

WHAT IS A PREDICTED LOG CHALLENGE?

It is a competition to predict accurately the time required to cover a given course in your boat.  Contest instructions are issued by the host organization, specifying the start, finish and several intermediate points.  Course lengths vary based on the size and type of boats competing.  Usually the course for displacement hull boats is in the range of 20 miles (+ or -), for planning hull boats the course may be stretched out to 30 miles (+ or -) and for sailing axillaries it is shortened to 15 miles (+ or-).  Each contestant turns in to the Observer assigned to his/her boat the contestant?s prediction of how long it will take to cover the course.

Each contestant is required to ?start? within a prescribed ?starting window?.  After the start the Observer will collect all watches from contestants and crew so that only the Observer has access to time of day and elapsed time.  The Observer will also make sure that all navigation electronics are turned-off so you will be required to navigate the course with only a compass and a tachometer.  After the contestant navigates the entire course the Observer will compare the actual elapsed time against the prediction to determine the difference.

The event combines fun, social activity, the joy of cruising your boat, a competition for those who enjoy competition and a learning experience.  All you really need to be competitive is some simple speed data for your boat and an understanding of how to calculate your prediction.  A desire to associate with a fine group of ?boat folks? (?yachtsman? sounds too ?uppity?) like yourself while enjoying using your boat during the contest and the good fellowship that developes afterwards at the awards party.

[Grind4Beer]

Okay, as I understand the GPLC rules, power boats are allowed to use their tachometers, which gives them, if they do some practicing beforehand, an instrument that they can map to their knotmeters in various conditions. Those of us in the, ummmm, perhaps more venerable 'Sailing Auxiliary' class, from what I've read so far, are allowed to use an anemometer to measure windspeed, and have to translate that via polar charts or whatever to our boatspeed, tacking/gybing angles, etc.

That's tough on the naviguesser, but so be it. Will there be a minimum speed for the course, bearing in mind that beating VMG for a 24ft sailboat is maybe 4kt in ideal conditions (might be much slower in light air), and how close to the start-time can the prediction be finalized?

G4B

[Christopher]

Don't forget to factor in the dead weight of the "observer" on board not helping you do anything. 

[Leigh Ann]

A couple of questions answered.......

QUESTION:  I will enter my sailboat.  Must I sail the course.

ANSWER:  You may sail if you wish but you may also motor, motor-sail, paddle, row, drift or any combination thereof.  This also applies for displacement hull and planning hull powerboats.  The idea is to predicted your time to navigate the course and then see how close your actual time is to that predicted without use of a time piece or any electronic assistance.

QUESTION:  Will the Organizing Authority furnish maps of the course(s)?

ANSWER:  No.  At the MANDATORY COMPETITORS MEETING the Organizing Authority will furnish LAT/LON info on the marks and the order/direction of rounding.  Competitors should have a current copy of Galveston Bay Small Craft Chart No. 11326 although it is not required.  You may also use a Key Map, Roads of Texas Mapbook or AAA Travel Map.