HMR weather

[Franklin]

Has anybody looked at the weather models for the weekend of the HMR?  I looked at the GFS model on weather underground and noticed they are predicting not only rough weather on the Texas coast, but also what looks like a hurricane just south of Cuba headed this way.  I know it's still very early for models to be accurate, but they usually are right about the development of storms well in advance.  The way I figure it, we've been having too nice of weather lately for it to continue   and here I was hoping for a gentle breeze while I sit on the high side drinking a beer, soaking up the sun and watching all the beautiful sailboats as they pass us .  I guess I'll have to setting for hanging on for dear life trying to keep my food down, skin dry and warm while sipping hot tea.  Maybe I can put some rum in that tea.


http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

[Franklin]

hmmmm....models are different now...no more bad weather

[JayZ]

yes it is going to be an off the wind race with a nice moderate breeze, clear skies moderate temperature.  ...oh and the moon will be big and full.  it is this way every year isn't it?

[Franklin]

No.  Some years a northern front blows in during the race.  We usually do get a cold front in October about a week before halloween so when the race is held has a lot to do with it.  The good news is the models have change and are now calling for a little breeze and no storm.  I guess I should have waited a few days before posting 

[Keith]

It will change again.

[MaryM]

....and again

[JayZ]

wait a minute!  The brochure, poster and website said it was going to be an easy off the wind race. 

[Bee]

Yeah Jay, just like last year and every other year before.  Never ever changes.  Don't believe anything Keith says. Those CA boys don't know nuttin about Texas' weather.

[edthemainsailguy]

 the only thing that will be the same as the regattas before this one, will be the set list for the band ... and how good the rum is!

[DollFin]

They can't even get the weather/wind predictions right on the same day, how can we expect them to know what it will be like in 2 weeks?

[MaryM]

One of my personal highlights of the HMR skippers meeting is the weather forecast from the gentlemen that has been doing it forever.  We should start a pool based on his predictions!

[Franklin]

Well, that tropical storm prediction is back now but saying it will go in the same direction as Paula.  What I don't like about the models now is it's calling for heavy rain Wednesday night, all day Thursday and Friday.

[ChrisK]

Well, are the t-48 hour predictions close to the two week forecast?

Looks like building breeze. 0 at the start all the way to 20+ late Thur night as you make your way south. (Sailflow)

Downwind?
I can think of one time, maybe 2, in twelve years?

Besides some spirited weather (some I'm still trying to forget). I've seen all kinds of exciting things on this race: being becalmed in a plague of flies, flying ants (ouch), errie onshore fires, a night listening to Katrina debris roll across the bottom of the boat, near misses with standpipes/dredge pipes/unlit shrimp boats/nav markers/barges under tow; created piles of broken boat stuff like shrouds, blocks, sails, entire electrical systems... smelled a dolphins breath, had a bird (finch?) perched upon the shoulder, admired Frigate birds on the attack, witnessed flying fish, migrant butterflies, the Milky Way, a comet, space shuttles flying overhead and a certain 100+ year old tall ship completely horizen the fleet before we even got to Freeport....and that's just the trip down.
Should be a good one!